2022 Share of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources in Japan
(Preliminary)
～Solar power generation to reach 10%, further expansion of renewables urged in Japan
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
April 14, 2023
summary
- In 2022 (calendar year), the share of renewables in Japan’s total electricity generation including on-site consumption is estimated to be 22.7%, up only slightly from 22.4% in the previous year, and policies for further expansion are required.
- In 2022, solar PV accounted for 9.9% of annual electricity production, up 0.6 percentage points from 9.3% the previous year, and VRE (Variable Renewable Energy, Solar and Wind power) accounted for 10.8%.
- Biomass power generation accounted for 4.6%, up from 4.1% the previous year. On the other hand, wind power generation remained at 0.85%, down from 0.88% the previous year, while geothermal power generation remained virtually unchanged at 0.25% from the previous year. Hydro power generation decreased 0.7 percentage points from the previous year to 7.1%.
- Fossil fuels accounted for 72.4% of the total electricity generated during the year, up from 71.7% the previous year. LNG accounted for 29.9%, down from 31.7% a year earlier, partly due to price hikes, while coal increased to 27.8% from 26.5% a year earlier. On the other hand, nuclear power accounted for 4.8%, down from 5.9% the previous year.
- In Europe, the share of annual electricity generated from renewables will exceed 40% in 2022 in many countries, with an average of 38.4% for the EU27 as a whole, slightly lower than the 39.5% share of electricity generated from fossil fuels due to the Ukraine crisis, etc. The share of VRE will also increase with Denmark’s 60%. The average for the EU27 as a whole is also 22.3%.
- In China, in addition to hydropower, wind and solar power have been rapidly introduced over the past decade, and by 2022, wind power and solar power will account for 9.3% and 4.7% of annual power generation, respectively, on a par with nuclear power, and the VRE share has already reached 14%. The share of renewables, including hydropower, in total electricity generated will reach 30.8%.
- In the electricity supply and demand data for 2022 (calendar year) in Japan, the share of renewables to electricity demand averaged 20.5%, with hourly maximums reaching over 80% for Japan as a whole, with VRE reaching a maximum of 69%. In the Shikoku and Kyushu areas, there were time periods when VRE alone exceeded 100%, while VRE curtailment was occurred in Hokkaido (0.1%), Tohoku (0.4%), Shikoku (0.3%), Chugoku (0.2%), and Kyushu (1.4%), with the national average curtailment rate at 0.3%.
Share of renewables to electricity generated in Japan
The share of total electricity generated in Japan including on-site consumption by power source in 2022 was estimated from the Electricity Survey Statistics[1] and nationwide electricity supply and demand data[2] . As a result, the share of renewables in Japan’s total electricity generation in 2022 was 22.7% as shown in Table 1 and Figure 1.
The share of renewables, which was about 15% in 2016, increased by more than 1 percentage point annually to reach more than 22% by 2021, but only increased by 0.3 percentage points in 2022 (Figure 2). Among these, solar power generation accounted for 9.9% of electricity generated, almost reaching 10%, up from 9.3% in the previous year (2021), and gradually approaching the share (15%) assumed in the power source composition in FY2030 by the Sixth Basic Energy Plan (approved by the Cabinet in October 2021). Together with the 0.85% share of wind power, the share of VRE exceeded 10%, reaching 10.7%, a slight increase from 10.2% in the previous year (2021). As for renewables other than solar power, the share of electricity generated from biomass power was 4.6%, up from 4.1% in the previous year. Wind power, on the other hand, accounted for 0.85%, down slightly from 0.88% a year earlier, while geothermal power remained unchanged at 0.25% from the previous year. Hydroelectricity was 7.1%, down from 7.8% the previous year. By month, the share of electricity generated from renewables was highest in May 2022, reaching 31.3% as shown in Figure 3. In this May, the share of solar PV increased to 14.2%, and the share of VRE reached 15%.
The data for wind power generation is not based on electricity survey statistics, but on the amount of electricity transmitted based on electricity supply and demand data published by electric power companies. In addition, although data from the Electricity Survey and Statistics is used for the amount of electricity generated by photovoltaic power generation, it should be noted that the data is about 10% larger in terms of annual transmission volume than the electricity supply and demand data, so there is a range of estimation for the proportion of photovoltaic power generation. Specifically, the annual amount of electricity generated by PV was 106.1 TWh in the electricity survey statistics, but 85.6 TWh in the amount of electricity transmitted based on electricity supply and demand data. Since the estimate for residential solar power smaller than 10 kW is 3.5 TWh, the combined total is 89.1 TWh, which is more than 10% smaller, resulting in an 8.3% share of solar power generation. The estimated amount of electricity generated from the Electricity Survey and Statistics is the sum of the amount of electricity reported by electric utility companies (retail electric utilities and power producers above a certain capacity) and the amount of electricity received from non-electric utilities, so the value may be larger due to double counting and other factors.
Thermal power generation by fossil fuel, which has been on a declining trend, accounted for 72.4% of electricity generated in 2022, up from 71.7% the previous year, a decrease of about 11 percentage points from 2016 but still at a high level. For coal-fired power, the share decreased from 30.2% in 2016 to 26.5% in 2021 but increased to 27.8% in 2022; for LNG, there is a consistent downward trend from 38.9% in 2016 to 29.9% in 2022. Nuclear power, on the other hand, after going to zero in 2014, increased to 6.5% of electricity generated in 2019 but decreased to 4.3% in 2020, to 5.9% in 2021, and then decreased again to 4.8% in 2022.
Table 1: Renewable energy as a share of total electricity generated in Japan
Source: Compiled by ISEP from power supply survey statistics, etc.
Figure 1: Source of power generation in Japan as preliminary data for 2022
Source: Compiled by ISEP from Electricity Survey Statistics, etc.
Figure 2: Share of Renewable Energy in Total Electricity Generated in Japan
Source: Compiled by ISEP from Electricity Survey Statistics, etc.
Figure 3: Monthly share of renewables in total electricity generated in Japan (2022)
Source: Compiled by ISEP from Electricity Survey Statistics, etc.
Figure 4: Annual Electricity Generation and Power Source Composition in Japan
Source: Compiled by ISEP from Electricity Survey Statistics, etc.
Comparison of share of renewable energy with other foreign countries
In the introduction of renewable energy in the electricity sector, the European Union (EU) has been leading the world since the 1990s, and the share of electricity generated in the EU as a whole exceeded 30% in 2017, and will reach 38.6% in the 27 EU countries in 2022, almost on par with the 39.5% share of electricity generated from fossil fuels. This is almost in line with the 39.5% share of electricity generated from fossil fuels in Japan. This is nearly twice the share of renewables in Japan. The share of VRE such as solar PV and wind power also reached 22.3% in Europe as a whole, about double the 11% share in Japan.
Figure 5 shows a breakdown of the share of electricity generated annually from renewables in major European countries, the United States, China, and Japan in 2022. This figure is based on the latest 2022 data on the electricity sector for European countries estimated by the UK think tank Ember[1] and UK government data[2] , and for the US and China on the latest global data from Ember[3] . In Denmark, where the share of VRE already exceeds 60%, renewables account for about 84% of annual electricity production, with wind alone accounting for 55%. In Austria, hydropower accounts for 56%, and together with wind power (11%) and biomass (6%), the share of renewables has reached 76%. In Sweden, the share of renewables is 68%, in Portugal 60%, and already in Germany (43%), Spain (42%), and the United Kingdom (41%) the share of renewables has reached 40%, above the average for Europe as a whole. and in Germany it exceeds 30%. In France, on the other hand, where the share of nuclear power is over 60%, the share of renewables is only 25%.
In the European Union (EU), the European Climate Law was approved by the European Parliament in June 2021, aiming for ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in order to realize the Green Deal initiative for climate neutrality and green recovery in 2050.[4] The new policy package for the 55% reduction, "Fit for 55 The EU's Renewable Energy Directive RED III has been reviewed along with a new policy package "Fit for 55%" to achieve a 55% reduction. 27 EU countries, excluding France, have already met their 2020 renewable energy targets and are aiming for even higher targets by 2030. The EU has already established targets for the introduction of renewable energy in the form of NECPs (National Energy and Climate Plans), but as the reduction targets are raised, each country is reviewing its own targets. In addition, Russia's military advance into Ukraine has made the energy crisis in Europe, which has been dependent on Russia for natural gas and other energy sources, a reality, and has necessitated a rapid energy transition. In particular, some countries, such as Germany, are highly dependent on Russia for natural gas, and as the electricity market soars, there have been concerns about soaring prices and supply shortages of natural gas for heating and industrial use as well. Therefore, the European Commission (EC) announced the "REPowerEU" plan in May 2022 to reduce dependence on fossil fuels from Russia.[5] For renewables, the plan proposes a further increase from 40% to 45% by 2030. In order to achieve this goal, the EU has formulated the EU Solar Energy Strategy, which aims to double solar power generation from the current level (2020) to 320 GW, and to reach 600 GW by 2030, and is also considering making the installation of rooftop solar panels mandatory for new buildings.
A comparison of the share of renewables in annual electricity generation in European countries and Japan from the 1990s to 2022 shows that European countries have steadily increased the share of renewables since the 1990s toward the year 2020 as shown in Figure 6. In Denmark, the share was already 17% in 2000, but it exceeded 30% in 2010 and will reach 84% in 2022, with the goal of exceeding 100% renewables electricity by 2030.[6] In Denmark, 20 years of experience since 2000 in the power system has resulted in integrated solutions to provide more than 50% of electricity from variable renewables VRE from wind and solar in the power system and power market.
In Germany, the share was about 7% in 2000, then increased to nearly 20% in 2010, and reached 45% in 2020, but in 2021 it decreased to about 40% due to a decrease in wind power generation due to wind conditions, but in 2022 it reached 44% again as shown in Figure 7. Note that this share is in relation to the amount of electricity generated per year, while in relation to the amount of electricity consumed per year, it has reached 46%. In order to break away from dependence on natural gas from Russia due to the crisis in Ukraine, the new EEG (Renewable Energy Act) of 2022 calls for more than 80% of electricity to come from renewable energy sources by 2030 and 100% by 2035. Germany has increased its share from only 6% in 2000 to 41% in 2021, a seven-fold increase.[7] On the other hand, the share of nuclear power plants has declined from 29% in 2000 to the 6% level in 2022, and has been steadily decreasing toward the end of 2022, when it is set to phase out all nuclear power plants. However, due to concerns about the supply of natural gas, measures have been taken to preserve nuclear power plants that are scheduled for phase-out until April 2023. The share of coal, including lignite, produced in Germany, which accounted for 50% in 2000, decreased to 23.4% in 2020 due to factors such as higher carbon prices in emissions trading (EU ETS), but increased to 31.7% in 2022, due to factors such as the surge in natural gas prices caused by the Ukraine crisis The total amount of electricity generated by wind and solar power is estimated to be about $3.5 trillion. This is the same level as the share of VRE for wind and solar combined.
In China, in addition to hydropower, wind and solar power have been rapidly introduced over the past decade, and by 2022 the annual share of wind and solar power will be 9.3% and 4.7%, respectively, bringing the share of VRE to 14.0%. The share of electricity generated from renewables, including hydropower, reached 30.8%, up from 29% the previous year as shown in Figure 8. On the other hand, the share of nuclear power was 4.7%, almost unchanged since 2019, so solar power generation is now at the same level as nuclear power generation. the size of annual electricity generation in China in 2022 (about 8860 TWh) is more than three times larger than that of the EU (27 countries) as a whole (about 2780 TWh in 2022) and more than eight times larger than that of Japan (about This is more than eight times the 1000 TWh generated in Japan. While the amount of electricity generated in Europe and Japan has been flat or declining, in China it has continued to increase along with economic growth, nearly doubling over the past decade.
Figure 5: Comparison of the share of renewables and other energy sources in electricity generation in European countries and in the United States, China, and Japan (2022)
Source: ISEP, based on data from Ember, UK government, Electricity Survey and Statistics, etc.
Figure 6: Renewable Electricity Installation Results and Targets for European Countries and Japan
Source: Compiled by ISEP from EU Statistics Bureau, Agora Energiewende data, etc.
Figure 7: Amount of electricity generated by renewables in Germany and their share of total electricity generated
Source: Compiled by ISEP from AGEB data
Figure 8: Renewable and nuclear power generation in China
Source: China Energy Portal[8] and Ember
Share of renewables in Japan's domestic electricity supply and demand
The data is based on monthly electricity supply-demand data published by 10 general transmission and distribution companies for each area of Japan and is compiled for the year 2022, focusing on the share of renewable energy to grid electricity demand. ISEP's Energy Chart provides an interactive and easy-to-understand analysis of electricity supply and demand data in Japan using a variety of graphs from publicly available data. [9]
The share of renewables in Japan's total annual electricity demand averaged 20.5% in calendar year 2022, up from an annual average of 19.9% in FY2021. The share of solar PV was 9.6%, which together with the 1.0% share of wind power, brought the share of variable renewables VRE to 10.7%. Solar PV increased from 9.0% in FY2021, and its share is larger than that of hydropower at 7.7%. Biomass power generation increased from 1.6% in the previous year to 1.9%. Meanwhile, the share of nuclear power in 2022 was 5.9%, down from 7.7% in 2021.
The monthly average of the share of renewables in Japan's total electricity demand was highest in May 2022, at 30.3%, up from 28.6% the previous year as shown in Figure 9. The share of VRE also reached a maximum of 15.4% at this time, up from 14.1% in April of the previous year. The daily average reached 42.6% on May 3rd, 2022, while the maximum VRE share was 25.2% on May 4th, 2022, up from the previous year's maximum of 21.7%. The same hourly value for the share of renewables peaked for the year at 83.8% on May 4th at 11:00 a.m., with solar reaching 67.0% and wind power 2.1%, for a peak VRE share of 69.2%. This is an increase from the 58.9% peak for solar power the previous year. Incidentally, the peak value for wind power was 3.7% before dawn on November 14th, 2022.
By electric power utility area as shown in Figure10, the Tohoku area had the highest average share of renewables to annual electricity demand in 2022 at 36.0%, while solar and wind power were the highest in Japan at 11.4% and 4.8%, respectively, while the VRE share reached 16.2%, Hydroelectric power generation also accounted for a large share at 13.9% as shown in Figure 11. The Tohoku area also has the highest share of biomass power generation in Japan at 4.8%, and the share of geothermal power generation is 1.3%, which is also high, along with the Kyushu area. The Hokkaido area, which ranked third in terms of renewable energy share, reached 33.2%, with solar power at 8.7% and wind power at 4.5%, while the VRE share was 13.2%, but hydropower was higher at 16.0%. The average share of renewable energy in eastern Japan as a whole in 2022 was 19.8%, below the national average of 20.5%. This is lower than the national average of 20.5%. This is largely due to the fact that the Tokyo area has only 13.7%. In the Tokyo area, solar power accounted for 7.9%, higher than the 4.7% share of hydroelectric power.
In 2022, the share of renewables in Central and Western Japan as a whole was 21.0%, higher than the national average of 20.5%, while solar PV and wind power combined accounted for 10.4% and 0.6%, respectively, for a higher share of VRE at 11.0%. On the other hand, nuclear power plants, which have zero operations in eastern Japan and in the Kansai, Kyushu, and Shikoku areas in central and western Japan, accounted for 10.7%, slightly higher than solar, but down from 14.0% the previous year. In the Hokuriku Area, which ranked second in terms of renewable energy share, the share reached 33.8% in 2022, but the share of solar was 5.1%, wind 0.8%, and VRE 6.0%, relatively low, while the share of hydropower was 25.4%, the highest among all areas in Japan. In the Shikoku area, which ranks fourth in terms of the share of renewables, the share was 28.9%, down from 29.8% in FY2021, while the share of nuclear power was 27.9%, a significant increase from 8.8% in the previous year. In the Shikoku area, the share of VRE, which includes 15.1% solar and 1.8% wind, was 16.9%, the second highest level in Japan after the Kyushu area. In the Kyushu area, the share of renewables reached 27.2%, with solar reaching 16.2% compared to 4.9% for hydro, the highest level in the country, and the share of VRE, combined with wind at 1.0%, at 17.1%, also the highest level in the country.
In 2022, seven areas, Hokkaido, Tohoku, Hokuriku, Chubu, Shikoku, Chugoku, and Kyushu, will have more than 100% of their electricity demand supplied by renewables in an hourly value. In 2021, there were five areas, Hokkaido, Tohoku, Hokuriku, Shikoku, and Chugoku. In the Tohoku area in particular, the share of renewables in electricity demand reached 123.6% at 12:00 on April 9th, 2022. At this peak, solar and wind power accounted for 77.5% and 10.6%, respectively, and VRE accounted for 88.1%. In addition, 27.7% of hydropower, 6.2% of biomass, and 1.7% of geothermal combined for 123.6%. Even in the Kyushu area, where output curtailment is in this area, the share of solar reached a maximum of 104.9% during the peak hourly period, as shown in Figure 12 at 11:00 a.m. on May 4th, 2022. At this time, wind power accounted for 0.3%, the VRE share reached 105.2%, and the renewable energy share 116%. At this time, VRE curtailment was also occurred, which means that the VRE share had reached approximately 120% before the VRE curtailment.
In the Kyushu area, VRE curtailment has been occurred since 2018 among all areas in Japan, and the VRE curtailment rate for the whole year of 2022 was 1.4%, down from 3.9% in 2021. In the Kyushu area, 11.4GW of PV power plants has already been connected to the power grid under the FIT system as of the end of December 2022, and together with 630 MW of wind power plants, the VRE connected capacity exceeds 12 GW as shown in Figure 13. However, the Kyushu area has about 4 GW of nuclear power plants, but in 2022, the operating rate of nuclear power plants was low and their share of electricity generation was as low as 22.4%, so the VRE curtailment is thought to be largely due to the operating rate of nuclear power plants as well. In 2022, VRE curtailment also occurred in other 4 areas, Hokkaido, Tohoku, Chugoku, and Shikoku for the first time, but even in the Shikoku area, where nuclear power plants are operating, the curtailment rate is about 0.3%. Although VRE curtailment rules have been reviewed and the use of VRE online control is progressing, the rules have become more complex and the power system as a whole has not yet been optimized. In the Kyushu area, inter-regional interconnection lines are being used to some extent effectively, and further improvement and enhancement of operations are required, including in other areas. There are areas in Kyushu where pumped storage power generation is fully utilized and other areas where it is not yet fully utilized, and the first step is to promote and optimize on-line control of VRE, review the minimum output of thermal power generation, and in the future, utilize storage batteries, DR (Demand Response), VPP (Virtual Power Plant), etc. [10] .
Figure 9: Share of renewables and nuclear power in Japan's nationwide electricity supply and demand by month in 2022
Source: Electricity supply-demand data of TSOs
Figure 10: Maximum demand of 10 supply areas and operational capacity of inter-regional interconnection lines in Japan
Source: Additions to OCCTO(Japan)
Figure 11: Share of renewables in electricity supply and demand by area (2022)
Source: Electricity supply and demand data from TSOs
Figure 12: Kyushu Area Electricity Supply and Demand (May 4, 2022)
Source: Prepared from Kyushu Electric Power Transmission and Distribution's electricity supply and demand data
Figure 13: Grid Connection Status by Area (End of Dec. 2022, Partially End of Nov. 2022)
Source: Compiled from data of general transmission and distribution companies
References
[1] Ember(2023) "European Electricity Review 2023", https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european- electricity-review-2023/
[2] UK Government(2023) "Energy Trends:UK electricity" https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-section -5-energy-trends
[3] Ember(2023) "Global Electricity Revire 2023", https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity- review-2023/
[4] EU Commission "European Climate Law" https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eu-climate-action/law_en
[5] REPowerEU https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131
[6] Danish Energy Agency, "The development of flexibility and its role in the Danish electricity system," https://www.isep.or.jp/archives/library/13612
[7] AGEB "STORMMIX 1990-2021" https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/
[8] China Energy Portal https://chinaenergyportal.org/en/
[9] ISEP Energy Chart http://www.isep.or.jp/chart/
[10] ISEP "Solar and Wind curtailment by Tohoku, Shikoku and Chugoku Electric Power Companies Was Well Avoided" https://www.isep.or.jp/archives/library/13912
